Table 3 The accuracy of early-pregnancy glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 35mmol/mol in combination with other maternal GDM risk factors in the prediction plasma glucose concentrations > 90th percentile at one or more time points (0 h, 1 h, and/or 2 h) of a 2 h 75 g OGTT at 12 to 16 weeks gestation in 1394 Finnish women. The best area under the curve (AUC) cut-offs for pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), waist circumference at 8–14 weeks’ gestation, and waist-to-height ratio at 8–14 weeks’ gestation to predict plasma glucose concentrations > 90th percentile in an OGTT at 12 to 16 weeks’ gestation alone without HbA1c (see Table 2) are indicated with an asterisk (*)
Maternal risk factor in addition to HbA1c ≥ 35 mmol/mol | AUC | Sensitivity | Specificity | Likelihood ratio | Odds ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Previous gestational diabetes | 0.57 (0.55 to 0.59) | 0.15 (0.11 to 0.20) | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99) | 9.21 (5.43 to 15.62) | 10.68 (6.14 to 18.59) |
Family history of type 2 diabetes | 0.56 (0.54 to 0.59) | 0.26 (0.21 to 0.32) | 0.86 (0.84 to 0.88) | 1.90 (1.50 to 2.42) | 2.23 (1.64 to 3.02) |
Polycystic ovary syndrome | 0.51 (0.50 to 0.52) | 0.04 (0.02 to 0.07) | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99) | 2.29 (1.15 to 4.55) | 2.35 (1.17 to 4.72) |
Maternal age ≥ 30 years | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.64) | 0.40 (0.34 to 0.45) | 0.83 (0.80 to 0.85) | 2.29 (1.89 to 2.77) | 3.13 (2.38 to 4.13) |
Pre-gestational BMI, kg/m2 | |||||
≥25 | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.63) | 0.35 (0.29 to 0.40) | 0.87 (0.84 to 0.89) | 2.58 (2.08 to 3.20) | 3.43 (2.56 to 4.59) |
≥26.4* | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.63) | 0.30 (0.25 to 0.36) | 0.91 (0.89 to 0.93) | 3.35 (2.60 to 4.31) | 4.36 (3.17 to 6.00) |
≥30 | 0.59 (0.56 to 0.61) | 0.22 (0.18 to 0.27) | 0.96 (0.94 to 0.97) | 5.10 (3.60 to 7.24) | 6.26 (4.22 to 9.30) |
≥35 | 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) | 0.11 (0.07 to 0.15) | 0.98 (0.97 to 0.99) | 6.46 (3.69 to 11.32) | 7.12 (3.98 to 12.74) |
Waist circumference, cm | |||||
≥80 | 0.63 (0.60 to 0.66) | 0.48 (0.42 to 0.53) | 0.79 (0.76 to 0.81) | 2.25 (1.90 to 2.65) | 3.38 (2.58 to 4.43) |
≥88 | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.65) | 0.34 (0.29 to 0.40) | 0.90 (0.88 to 0.92) | 3.41 (2.68 to 4.34) | 4.64 (3.40 to 6.35) |
≥89* | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.65) | 0.32 (0.27 to 0.38) | 0.92 (0.90 to 0.93) | 3.79 (2.94 to 4.89) | 5.12 (3.72 to 7.05) |
≥90 | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.65) | 0.32 (0.27 to 0.37) | 0.92 (0.90 to 0.94) | 4.11 (3.15 to 5.36) | 5.56 (3.99 to 7.74) |
Waist-to-height ratio | |||||
≥0.50 | 0.63 (0.60 to 0.66) | 0.42 (0.36 to 0.48) | 0.84 (0.82 to 0.86) | 2.64 (2.17 to 3.20) | 3.82 (2.88 to 5.07) |
≥0.54* | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.65) | 0.31 (0.26 to 0.37) | 0.92 (0.91 to 0.94) | 4.07 (3.13 to 5.30) | 5.48 (3.95 to 7.60) |