Predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality in type 2 diabetes: Diabetes Heart Study

Table 4 Average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality models

Data	Outcome	Model	AUC	95 % Confidence Interval	p-value
Random 1	All-cause mortality	Basic	0.697	(0.644, 0.749)	0.011
	All-cause mortality	Full	0.759	(0.710, 0.807)
	CVD mortality	Basic	0.658	(0.590, 0.726)	0.002
	CVD mortality	Full	0.764	(0.705, 0.823)
Random 2	All-cause mortality	Basic	0.693	(0.638, 0.747)	0.0001
	All-cause mortality	Full	0.777	(0.732, 0.823)
	CVD mortality	Basic	0.614	(0.534, 0.694)	0.0003
	CVD mortality	Full	0.725	(0.661, 0.789)
Full Cohort	All-cause mortality	Basic	0.699	(0.661, 0.737)	6.50 × 10⁻⁹
	All-cause mortality	Full	0.788	(0.756, 0.821)
	CVD mortality	Basic	0.652	(0.600, 0.704)	4.14 × 10⁻⁷
	CVD mortality	Full	0.764	(0.721, 0.807)

These models were derived using a two-fold cross-validation approach in each randomly selected dataset and in the full cohort. Basic models included age and sex only. Full models for all-cause mortality included age, sex, coronary artery calcified plaque, urine albumin:creatinine ratio, diabetes duration, current smoking, educational attainment, insulin use, and waist hip ratio. Full models for CVD mortality included age, sex, coronary artery calcified plaque, urine albumin:creatinine ratio, history of CVD events, and diabetes duration. P-values for comparing the predictive power of the basic model with the full model are listed

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