Independent external validation and comparison of prevalent diabetes risk prediction models in a mixed-ancestry population of South Africa

Masconi, Katya; Matsha, Tandi E.; Erasmus, Rajiv T.; Kengne, Andre P.

doi:10.1186/s13098-015-0039-y

Table 3 Discrimination and calibration statistics for diabetes risk model performance in subgroups of participants by gender, age and body mass index (BMI)

From: Independent external validation and comparison of prevalent diabetes risk prediction models in a mixed-ancestry population of South Africa

Models		Male	Female	Age < 60 years	Age ≥ 60 years	BMI < 25 kg/m²	BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²
Cambridge Diabetes Risk Score [17]	E/O (95 % CI)	2.30 (1.21−3.37)	1.71 (1.00−1.41)	1.57 (0.71−2.44)	2.10 (1.51−2.69)	1.08 (0.55−1.61)	1.96 (1.30−2.63)
	Brier score	0.195	0.192	0.151	0.282	0.102	0.230
	Yates slope	0.373	0.384	0.368	0.384	0.450	0.368
	C-statistic (95 % CI)	0.67 (0.56−0.78)	0.67 (0.62−0.73)	0.66 (0.60−0.72)	0.65 (0.56−0.73)	0.69 (0.58−0.79)	0.64 (0.59−0.70)
Kuwaiti Risk Score [18]	E/O (95 % CI)	0.73 (0.40−1.06)	0.72 (0.34−1.10)	0.73 (0.37−1.10)	0.71 (0.32−1.11)	0.33 (0.20−0.46)	0.81 (0.43−1.19)
	Brier score	0.112	0.149	0.121	0.186	0.097	0.159
	Yates slope	0.588	0.468	0.476	0.449	0.890	0.468
	C-statistic (95 % CI)	0.70 (0.58−0.82)	0.67 (0.61−0.72)	0.67 (0.61−0.74)	0.65 (0.57−0.73)	0.61 (0.51−0.72)	0.66 (0.60−0.71)
Omani Diabetes Risk Score [19]	E/O (95 % CI)	1.33 (0.45−2.20)	1.32 (0.65−2.00)	1.26 (0.53−1.99)	1.40 (0.60−2.20)	1.16 (0.41−1.92)	1.36 (0.71−2.01)
	Brier score	0.137	0.173	0.140	0.221	0.096	0.194
	Yates slope	0.347	0.399	0.393	0.296	0.620	0.304
	C-statistic (95 % CI)	0.62 (0.49−0.74)	0.66 (0.61−0.71)	0.66 (0.60−0.71)	0.60 (0.52−0.68)	0.71 (0.61−0.82)	0.61 (0.56−0.67)
Rotterdam Predictive Model 1 [20]	E/O (95 % CI)	0.84 (−0.38−2.06)	0.48 (0.45−0.93)	0.52 (0.44−0.96)	0.49 (0.39−0.88)	0.72 (0.34−1.06)	0.51 (0.45−0.96)
	Brier score	0.117	0.155	0.125	0.199	0.096	0.168
	Yates slope	0.913	1.154	1.135	0.838	0.791	0.886
	C-statistic (95 % CI)	0.62 (0.49−0.75)	0.66 (0.60−0.72)	0.62 (0.55−0.69)	0.61 (0.52−0.69)	0.61 (0.50−0.72)	0.63 (0.57−0.69)
Simplified Finnish Diabetes Risk score [21]	E/O (95 % CI)	0.22 (0.09−0.35)	0.32 (0.18−0.45)	0.34 (0.18−0.50)	0.26 (0.14−0.37)	0.11 (0.06−0.15)	0.34 (0.21−0.48)
	Brier score	0.128	0.162	0.128	0.213	0.103	0.176
	Yates slope	0.538	0.591	0.487	0.608	1.345	0.562
	C-statistic (95 % CI)	0.70 (0.59−0.81)	0.66 (0.60−0.71)	0.64 (0.58−0.71)	0.67 (0.60−0.75)	0.77 (0.69−0.86)	0.62 (0.57−0.68)

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