Table 5 Sensitivity analysis results
Analysis | Oral semaglutide 14Â mg versus empagliflozin 25Â mg (PIONEER 2) | Oral semaglutide 14Â mg versus dulaglutide 1.5Â mg (NMA) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Δ discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALYs) | Δ discounted direct costs (EUR) | ICER (EUR per QALY gained) | Δ discounted quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALYs) | Δ discounted direct costs (EUR) | ICER (EUR per QALY gained) | |
Base case | + 0.11 | + 2548 | 23,571 | + 0.03 | + 814 | 23,927 |
Statistically significant differences only | + 0.10 | + 2512 | 25,456 | + 0.02 | + 828 | 36,478 |
35-year time horizon | + 0.09 | + 2506 | 27,295 | + 0.04 | + 714 | 18,686 |
20-year time horizon | + 0.08 | + 2452 | 32,014 | + 0.03 | + 704 | 24,178 |
10-year time horizon | + 0.05 | + 2517 | 53,097 | + 0.02 | + 697 | 32,264 |
0% discount rates |  + 0.19 | + 2882 | 15,267 | + 0.06 | + 1068 | 18,219 |
3% discount rates | + 0.12 | + 2610 | 21,357 | + 0.04 | + 856 | 22,419 |
BMI treatment effects maintained for patient lifetimes | + 0.11 | + 2515 | 22,438 | + 0.08 | + 772 | 10,235 |
UKPDS HbA1c progression with no changes on treatment switch | + 0.08 | + 4029 | 48,721 | + 0.02 | + 654 | 28,071 |
Upper 95% CI of HbA1c estimated treatment difference | + 0.11 | + 2426 | 21,973 | + 0.05 | + 733 | 13,518 |
Lower 95% CI of HbA1c estimated treatment difference | + 0.09 | + 2570 | 27,199 | + 0.03 | + 804 | 24,210 |
Upper 95% CI of BMI estimated treatment difference | + 0.12 | + 2570 | 21,706 | + 0.04 | + 769 | 18,444 |
Lower 95% CI of BMI estimated treatment difference | + 0.10 | + 2539 | 26,099 | + 0.02 | + 793 | 35,259 |
Treatment switching at 3 years with linear HbA1c progression | + 0.07 | + 2753 | 41,086 | + 0.04 | + 771 | 18,760 |
Costs of complications+ 10% | + 0.11 | + 2521 | 23,320 | + 0.03 | + 818 | 24,050 |
Costs of complications -10% | + 0.11 | + 2575 | 23,821 | + 0.03 | + 809 | 23,805 |
UKPDS 82 risk equations applied | + 0.08 | + 2395 | 29,931 | + 0.03 | + 705 | 28,678 |
Lee et al. BMI disutility applied | + 0.11 | + 2548 | 22,410 | + 0.04 | + 817 | 20,961 |
Lauridsen et al. diminishing hypoglycemia model applied | + 0.11 | + 2548 | 22,791 | + 0.03 | + 814 | 23,998 |
Currie et al. hypoglycemia disutilities applied | + 0.10 | + 2548 | 24,642 | + 0.03 | + 814 | 23,787 |
Comparator price reduced by 10% | + 0.11 | + 2644 | 24,457 | + 0.03 | + 1161 | 34,143 |