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Table 4 Logistic models for predicting type 2 diabetes, overall and by sex and race: risk scores and MetS severity

From: Assessing the added predictive ability of a metabolic syndrome severity score in predicting incident cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Jackson Heart Study

Model Bang et al. (2009) risk score Schmidt et al. (2005) risk score
Overall Sex and race specific analysis Overall Sex and race specific analysis
n = 13,136 White men n = 3904 White women n = 4721 Black men n = 1758 Black women n = 2753 n = 13,140 White men n = 3904 White women n = 4721 Black men n = 1760 Black women n = 2755
Model Ab
 T2D risk score OR (95% CI) 1.99 (1.87, 2.12) 2.06 (1.81, 2.34) 2.32 (2.04, 2.65) 1.86 (1.61, 2.16) 1.76 (1.57, 1.97) 1.27 (1.25, 1.29) 1.32 (1.28, 1.35) 1.31 (1.28, 1.34) 1.20 (1.17, 1.24) 1.24 (1.21, 1.27)
 Model AIC 9007.94 2691.06 2431.27 1501.31 2366.87 7613.79 244.21 1956.73 1360.75 2028.55
 C statistic 0.69 (0.68, 0.71) 0.66 (0.64, 0.69) 0.71 (0.69, 0.74) 0.66 (0.63, 0.70) 0.65 (0.63, 0.68) 0.83 (0.82, 0.84) 0.83 (0.81, 0.85) 0.86 (0.84, 0.88) 0.77 (0.74, 0.80) 0.80 (0.78, 0.82)
Model Bb
 MetS severity OR (95% CI) 4.01 (3.69, 4.37) 2.92 (2.51, 3.41) 5.55 (4.68, 6.58) 3.86 (3.10, 4.80) 4.26 (3.60, 5.03) 4.00 (3.67, 4.35) 2.92 (2.51, 3.41) 5.55 (4.68, 6.58) 3.79 (3.05, 4.71) 4.24 (3.59, 5.01)
 Model AIC 8252.17 2610.97 2100.56 1396.40 2105.66 8267.56 2610.95 2100.56 1406.21 2110.63
 C statistic 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.71 (0.68, 0.74) 0.82 (0.80, 0.84) 0.75 (0.72, 0.78) 0.78 (0.76, 0.80) 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.71 (0.68, 0.74) 0.82 (0.80, 0.84) 0.75 (0.72, 0.78) 0.78 (0.76, 0.80)
Model Cb
 T2D risk score OR (95% CI) 1.26 (1.17, 1.35) 1.63 (1.42, 1.86) 1.06 (0.90, 1.25) 1.34 (1.13, 1.57) 0.95 (0.82, 1.09) 1.26 (1.24, 1.29) 1.34 (1.30, 1.39) 1.29 (1.24, 1.34) 1.17 (1.12, 1.21) 1.20 (1.16, 1.25)
 MetS severity OR (95% CI) 3.53 (3.22, 3.88) 2.47 (2.10, 2.91) 5.35 (4.39, 6.51) 3.31 (2.62, 4.18) 4.43 (3.64, 5.39) 1.06 (0.93, 1.20) 0.80 (0.65, 0.97) 1.16 (0.87, 1.55) 1.41 (1.02, 1.94) 1.36 (1.04, 1.78)
 Model AIC 8216.11 2563.08 2102.05 1386.36 2107.08 7593.16 2245.49 1949.91 1351.12 2010.50
 C statistic 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.73 (0.71, 0.75) 0.82 (0.80, 0.84) 0.75 0.72, 0.78) 0.78 (0.76, 0.80) 0.83 (0.82, 0.84) 0.83 (0.81, 0.85) 0.86 (0.84, 0.88) 0.78 (0.75, 0.81) 0.81 (0.79, 0.83)
 IDIa (95% CI) 0.07 (0.06, 0.08) 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) 0.11 (0.09, 0.12) 0.07 (0.06, 0.09) 0.10 (0.09, 0.11) − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) 0.00 (0.00, 0.00) − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01) 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00)
 Continuous NRIa (95% CI) 0.68 (0.63, 0.72) 0.55 (0.44, 0.66) 0.82 (0.70, 0.91) 0.60 (0.47, 0.70) 0.75 (0.67, 0.87) 0.16 (0.12, 0.22) − 0.02 (− 0.14, 0.07) 0.20 (0.09, 0.32) 0.20 (0.09, 0.31) 0.22 (0.11, 0.32)
 Event NRIa (95% CI) 0.34 (0.30, 0.38) 0.32 (0.23, 0.43) 0.40 (0.29, 0.48) 0.30 (0.18, 0.38) 0.39 (0.31, 0.49) 0.02 (− 0.02, 0.07) − 0.02 (− 0.11, 0.06) − 0.01 (− 0.12, 0.11) 0.11 (0.02, 0.22) 0.04 (− 0.05, 0.14)
 Non-event NRIa (95% CI) 0.34 (0.32, 0.36) 0.23 (0.19, 0.26) 0.42 (0.39, 0.45) 0.30 (0.26, 0.36) 0.36 (0.32, 0.40) 0.14 (0.12, 0.16) − 0.00 (− 0.04, 0.04) 0.21 (0.18, 0.24) 0.09 0.03, 0.13) 0.18 (0.13, 0.22)
Model Db
 T2D × MetS p value p = 0.0002 p = 0.0339 p = 0.1879 p = 0.8658 p = 0.0025 p < 0.0001 p < 0.0001 p < 0.0001 p < 0.0001 p < 0.0001
 Model AIC 8203.45 2560.50 2102.27 1388.34 2099.40 7480.67 2210.59 1924.08 1337.13 1986.52
 C statistic 0.78 (0.77, 0.79) 0.73 (0.71, 0.76) 0.82 (0.80, 0.84) 0.75 (0.72, 0.78) 0.78 (0.76, 0.80) 0.83 (0.82, 0.84) 0.83 (0.81, 0.85) 0.86 (0.84, 0.88) 0.78 (0.75, 0.81) 0.81 (0.79, 0.83)
 IDIa (95% CI) 0.07 (0.06, 0.08) 0.04 (0.03, 0.05) 0.10 (0.09, 0.12) 0.07 (0.06, 0.09) 0.10 (0.09, 0.12) 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01) 0.01 (− 0.00, 0.01) − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) 0.01 (0.00, 0.02) 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01)
 Continuous NRIa (95% CI) 0.68 (0.64, 0.74) 0.58 (0.48, 0.69) 0.83 (0.71, 0.92) 0.59 (0.43, 0.69) 0.75 (0.66, 0.87) 0.47 (0.41, 0.52) 0.48 (0.39, 0.58) 0.56 (0.47, 0.69) 0.48 (0.35, 0.59) 0.41 (0.30, 0.48)
 Event NRIa (95% CI) 0.32 (0.29, 0.37) 0.32 (0.23, 0.42) 0.40 (0.29, 0.50) 0.29 (0.15, 0.37) 0.37 (0.28, 0.47) 0.31 (0.26, 0.36) 0.33 (0.23, 0.42) 0.28 (0.19, 0.40) 0.37 (0.26, 0.44) 0.25 (0.15, 0.34)
 Non-event NRIa (95% CI) 0.36 (0.34, 0.38) 0.26 (0.22, 0.29) 0.43 (0.41, 0.46) 0.30 (0.25, 0.35) 0.38 (0.34, 0.42) 0.16 (0.14, 0.17) 0.15 (0.11, 0.19) 0.28 (0.25, 0.31) 0.11 (0.06, 0.17) 0.16 (0.12, 0.20)
  1. All models controlled for study site. The risk scores were standardized to facilitate comparability of OR’s with MetS severity; model fit/prediction statistics included scores on their original scale
  2. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) OR’s (different than 1) and IDI’s/NRI’s (different than 0) were italic for ease of display
  3. a IDI and NRI computed relative to Model A
  4. b Predictors included in models are as follows: Model A: risk score only; Model B: MetS severity only; Model C: risk score and MetS severity; Model D risk score, MetS severity, and risk score by MetS severity interaction