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Table 4 Logistic models for predicting type 2 diabetes, overall and by sex and race: risk scores and MetS severity

From: Assessing the added predictive ability of a metabolic syndrome severity score in predicting incident cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Jackson Heart Study

Model

Bang et al. (2009) risk score

Schmidt et al. (2005) risk score

Overall

Sex and race specific analysis

Overall

Sex and race specific analysis

n = 13,136

White men

n = 3904

White women

n = 4721

Black men

n = 1758

Black women

n = 2753

n = 13,140

White men

n = 3904

White women

n = 4721

Black men

n = 1760

Black women

n = 2755

Model Ab

 T2D risk score OR (95% CI)

1.99 (1.87, 2.12)

2.06 (1.81, 2.34)

2.32 (2.04, 2.65)

1.86 (1.61, 2.16)

1.76 (1.57, 1.97)

1.27 (1.25, 1.29)

1.32 (1.28, 1.35)

1.31 (1.28, 1.34)

1.20 (1.17, 1.24)

1.24 (1.21, 1.27)

 Model AIC

9007.94

2691.06

2431.27

1501.31

2366.87

7613.79

244.21

1956.73

1360.75

2028.55

 C statistic

0.69 (0.68, 0.71)

0.66 (0.64, 0.69)

0.71 (0.69, 0.74)

0.66 (0.63, 0.70)

0.65 (0.63, 0.68)

0.83 (0.82, 0.84)

0.83 (0.81, 0.85)

0.86 (0.84, 0.88)

0.77 (0.74, 0.80)

0.80 (0.78, 0.82)

Model Bb

 MetS severity OR (95% CI)

4.01 (3.69, 4.37)

2.92 (2.51, 3.41)

5.55 (4.68, 6.58)

3.86 (3.10, 4.80)

4.26 (3.60, 5.03)

4.00 (3.67, 4.35)

2.92 (2.51, 3.41)

5.55 (4.68, 6.58)

3.79 (3.05, 4.71)

4.24 (3.59, 5.01)

 Model AIC

8252.17

2610.97

2100.56

1396.40

2105.66

8267.56

2610.95

2100.56

1406.21

2110.63

 C statistic

0.78 (0.77, 0.79)

0.71 (0.68, 0.74)

0.82 (0.80, 0.84)

0.75 (0.72, 0.78)

0.78 (0.76, 0.80)

0.78 (0.77, 0.79)

0.71 (0.68, 0.74)

0.82 (0.80, 0.84)

0.75 (0.72, 0.78)

0.78 (0.76, 0.80)

Model Cb

 T2D risk score OR (95% CI)

1.26 (1.17, 1.35)

1.63 (1.42, 1.86)

1.06 (0.90, 1.25)

1.34 (1.13, 1.57)

0.95 (0.82, 1.09)

1.26 (1.24, 1.29)

1.34 (1.30, 1.39)

1.29 (1.24, 1.34)

1.17 (1.12, 1.21)

1.20 (1.16, 1.25)

 MetS severity OR (95% CI)

3.53 (3.22, 3.88)

2.47 (2.10, 2.91)

5.35 (4.39, 6.51)

3.31 (2.62, 4.18)

4.43 (3.64, 5.39)

1.06 (0.93, 1.20)

0.80 (0.65, 0.97)

1.16 (0.87, 1.55)

1.41 (1.02, 1.94)

1.36 (1.04, 1.78)

 Model AIC

8216.11

2563.08

2102.05

1386.36

2107.08

7593.16

2245.49

1949.91

1351.12

2010.50

 C statistic

0.78 (0.77, 0.79)

0.73 (0.71, 0.75)

0.82 (0.80, 0.84)

0.75 0.72, 0.78)

0.78 (0.76, 0.80)

0.83 (0.82, 0.84)

0.83 (0.81, 0.85)

0.86 (0.84, 0.88)

0.78 (0.75, 0.81)

0.81 (0.79, 0.83)

 IDIa (95% CI)

0.07 (0.06, 0.08)

0.04 (0.03, 0.05)

0.11 (0.09, 0.12)

0.07 (0.06, 0.09)

0.10 (0.09, 0.11)

− 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00)

0.00 (0.00, 0.00)

− 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00)

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01)

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00)

 Continuous NRIa (95% CI)

0.68 (0.63, 0.72)

0.55 (0.44, 0.66)

0.82 (0.70, 0.91)

0.60 (0.47, 0.70)

0.75 (0.67, 0.87)

0.16 (0.12, 0.22)

− 0.02 (− 0.14, 0.07)

0.20 (0.09, 0.32)

0.20 (0.09, 0.31)

0.22 (0.11, 0.32)

 Event NRIa (95% CI)

0.34 (0.30, 0.38)

0.32 (0.23, 0.43)

0.40 (0.29, 0.48)

0.30 (0.18, 0.38)

0.39 (0.31, 0.49)

0.02 (− 0.02, 0.07)

− 0.02 (− 0.11, 0.06)

− 0.01 (− 0.12, 0.11)

0.11 (0.02, 0.22)

0.04 (− 0.05, 0.14)

 Non-event NRIa (95% CI)

0.34 (0.32, 0.36)

0.23 (0.19, 0.26)

0.42 (0.39, 0.45)

0.30 (0.26, 0.36)

0.36 (0.32, 0.40)

0.14 (0.12, 0.16)

− 0.00 (− 0.04, 0.04)

0.21 (0.18, 0.24)

0.09 0.03, 0.13)

0.18 (0.13, 0.22)

Model Db

 T2D × MetS p value

p = 0.0002

p = 0.0339

p = 0.1879

p = 0.8658

p = 0.0025

p < 0.0001

p < 0.0001

p < 0.0001

p < 0.0001

p < 0.0001

 Model AIC

8203.45

2560.50

2102.27

1388.34

2099.40

7480.67

2210.59

1924.08

1337.13

1986.52

 C statistic

0.78 (0.77, 0.79)

0.73 (0.71, 0.76)

0.82 (0.80, 0.84)

0.75 (0.72, 0.78)

0.78 (0.76, 0.80)

0.83 (0.82, 0.84)

0.83 (0.81, 0.85)

0.86 (0.84, 0.88)

0.78 (0.75, 0.81)

0.81 (0.79, 0.83)

 IDIa (95% CI)

0.07 (0.06, 0.08)

0.04 (0.03, 0.05)

0.10 (0.09, 0.12)

0.07 (0.06, 0.09)

0.10 (0.09, 0.12)

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01)

0.01 (− 0.00, 0.01)

− 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00)

0.01 (0.00, 0.02)

0.00 (− 0.00, 0.01)

 Continuous NRIa (95% CI)

0.68 (0.64, 0.74)

0.58 (0.48, 0.69)

0.83 (0.71, 0.92)

0.59 (0.43, 0.69)

0.75 (0.66, 0.87)

0.47 (0.41, 0.52)

0.48 (0.39, 0.58)

0.56 (0.47, 0.69)

0.48 (0.35, 0.59)

0.41 (0.30, 0.48)

 Event NRIa (95% CI)

0.32 (0.29, 0.37)

0.32 (0.23, 0.42)

0.40 (0.29, 0.50)

0.29 (0.15, 0.37)

0.37 (0.28, 0.47)

0.31 (0.26, 0.36)

0.33 (0.23, 0.42)

0.28 (0.19, 0.40)

0.37 (0.26, 0.44)

0.25 (0.15, 0.34)

 Non-event NRIa (95% CI)

0.36 (0.34, 0.38)

0.26 (0.22, 0.29)

0.43 (0.41, 0.46)

0.30 (0.25, 0.35)

0.38 (0.34, 0.42)

0.16 (0.14, 0.17)

0.15 (0.11, 0.19)

0.28 (0.25, 0.31)

0.11 (0.06, 0.17)

0.16 (0.12, 0.20)

  1. All models controlled for study site. The risk scores were standardized to facilitate comparability of OR’s with MetS severity; model fit/prediction statistics included scores on their original scale
  2. Statistically significant (p < 0.05) OR’s (different than 1) and IDI’s/NRI’s (different than 0) were italic for ease of display
  3. a IDI and NRI computed relative to Model A
  4. b Predictors included in models are as follows: Model A: risk score only; Model B: MetS severity only; Model C: risk score and MetS severity; Model D risk score, MetS severity, and risk score by MetS severity interaction
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Diabetology & Metabolic Syndrome

ISSN: 1758-5996

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