Model | Framingham risk score (D’Agostino et al. 2008) | ASCVD risk score (Goff et al. 2013) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Overall | Sex and race specific analysis | Overall | Sex and race specific analysis | |||||||
n = 12,553 | White men n = 3900 | White women n = 4715 | Black men n = 1478 | Black women n = 2460 | n = 12,553 | White men n = 3900 | White women n = 4715 | Black men n = 1478 | Black women n = 2460 | |
Model Ab | ||||||||||
CVD risk score HR (95% CI) | 2.38 (2.26, 2.52) | 2.03 (1.85, 2.22) | 2.47 (2.20, 2.76) | 2.49 (2.02, 3.08) | 2.59 (2.13, 3.15) | 2.68 (2.51, 2.86) | 2.27 (2.03, 2.54) | 2.74 (2.40, 3.12) | 3.47 (2.56, 4.71) | 2.43 (2.01, 2.94) |
Model AIC | 30,916.55 | 15,159.02 | 7166.26 | 2361.36 | 2163.07 | 30,911.43 | 15,155.87 | 7146.23 | 2367.17 | 2166.56 |
C statistic | 0.72 (0.71, 0.74) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.70 (0.68, 0.73) | 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) | 0.72 (0.68, 0.77) | 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.65) | 0.71 (0.68, 0.73) | 0.70 (0.66, 0.74) | 0.73 (0.68, 0.77) |
Model Bb | ||||||||||
MetS severity HR (95% CI) | 1.77 (1.66, 1.88) | 1.49 (1.37, 1.63) | 1.86 (1.65, 2.10) | 1.64 (1.33, 2.02) | 1.62 (1.32, 2.00) | 1.77 (1.66, 1.88) | 1.49 (1.37, 1.63) | 1.86 (1.65, 2.10) | 1.64 (1.33, 2.02) | 1.62 (1.32, 2.00) |
Model AIC | 31,394.43 | 15,265.20 | 7262.83 | 2405.99 | 2224.53 | 31,394.43 | 15,265.20 | 7262.83 | 2405.99 | 2224.53 |
C statistic | 0.64 (0.63, 0.65) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.60) | 0.64 (0.61, 0.66) | 0.65 (0.61, 0.69) | 0.63 (0.58, 0.67) | 0.64 (0.63, 0.65) | 0.59 (0.57, 0.60) | 0.64 (0.61, 0.66) | 0.65 (0.61, 0.69) | 0.63 (0.58, 0.67) |
Model Cb | ||||||||||
CVD risk score HR (95% CI) | 2.33 (2.19, 2.48) | 1.94 (1.74, 2.16) | 2.41 (2.08, 2.78) | 2.39 (1.90, 3.01) | 2.52 (2.04, 3.11) | 2.54 (2.36, 2.72) | 2.11 (1.87, 2.39) | 2.53 (2.17, 2.94) | 3.14 (2.28, 4.33) | 2.38 (1.94, 2.91) |
MetS severity HR (95% CI) | 1.06 (0.98, 1.14) | 1.09 (0.98, 1.21) | 1.04 (0.89, 1.22) | 1.12 (0.88, 1.42) | 1.09 (0.86, 1.38) | 1.14 (1.06, 1.22) | 1.15 (1.04, 1.27) | 1.16 (1.00, 1.34) | 1.29 (1.03, 1.61) | 1.08 (0.85, 1.36) |
Model AIC | 30,880.50 | 15,152.18 | 7159.64 | 2360.46 | 2162.74 | 30,860.53 | 15,146.65 | 7136.46 | 2361.73 | 2164.39 |
C statistic | 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.70 (0.67, 0.72) | 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) | 0.72 (0.68, 0.77) | 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.70 (0.68, 0.73) | 0.70 (0.67, 0.74) | 0.72 (0.68, 0.77) |
IDIa (95% CI) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) |
Continuous NRIa (95% CI) | 0.16 (0.08, 0.23) | 0.02 (− 0.08, 0.13) | 0.22 (0.04, 0.42) | 0.20 (0.03, 0.45) | 0.19 (− 0.07, 0.42) | 0.15 (0.05, 0.23) | 0.04 (− 0.08, 0.15) | 0.20 (0.01, 0.40) | 0.24 (0.05, 0.50) | 0.37 (0.13, 0.62) |
Event NRIa (95% CI) | 0.06 (− 0.02, 0.14) | − 0.03 (− 0.14, 0.07) | 0.08 (− 0.11, 0.27) | 0.14 (− 0.05, 0.36) | 0.09 (− 0.17, 0.34) | 0.10 (0.01, 0.18) | − 0.02 (− 0.12, 0.08) | 0.06 (− 0.13, 0.27) | 0.16 (− 0.05, 0.40) | 0.30 (0.06, 0.55) |
Non-event NRIa (95% CI) | 0.10 (0.08, 0.11) | 0.05 (0.03, 0.09) | 0.14 (0.11, 0.16) | 0.06 (0.02, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.05, 0.13) | 0.05 (0.03, 0.07) | 0.06 (0.03, 0.08) | 0.14 (0.11, 0.16) | 0.08 (0.03, 0.14) | 0.07 (0.02, 0.10) |
Model Db | ||||||||||
CVD × MetS p value | p < 0.0001 | p < 0.0001 | p < 0.0001 | p = 0.4329 | p = 0.0095 | p < 0.0001 | p < 0.0001 | p = 0.0032 | p = 0.5687 | p = 0.1049 |
Model AIC | 30,810.04 | 15,134.30 | 7142.84 | 2361.83 | 2157.61 | 30,809.03 | 15,130.44 | 7129.02 | 2363.41 | 2163.73 |
C statistic | 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.70 (0.67, 0.72) | 0.71 (0.67, 0.75) | 0.72 (0.68, 0.77) | 0.72 (0.71, 0.73) | 0.64 (0.62, 0.66) | 0.70 (0.68, 0.72) | 0.70 (0.66, 0.74) | 0.72 (0.68, 0.76) |
IDIa (95% CI) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.02, 0.01) | − 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.02, 0.01) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) | 0.00 (− 0.00, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, − 0.00) | − 0.00 (− 0.01, 0.01) |
Continuous NRIa (95% CI) | 0.42 (0.35, 0.49) | 0.20 (0.10, 0.32) | 0.56 (0.36, 0.73) | 0.14 (− 0.09, 0.48) | 0.48 (0.25, 0.74) | 0.38 (0.30, 0.45) | 0.22 (0.10, 0.32) | 0.46 (0.26, 0.67) | 0.18 (− 0.02, 0.43) | 0.32 (0.03, 0.59) |
Event NRIa (95% CI) | 0.39 (0.32, 0.45) | 0.33 (0.25, 0.43) | 0.50 (0.34, 0.67) | 0.09 (− 0.13, 0.39) | 0.46 (0.21, 0.70) | 0.27 (0.19, 0.34) | 0.31 (0.23, 0.41) | 0.38 (0.19, 0.57) | 0.08 (− 0.13, 0.33) | 0.17 (− 0.11, 0.43) |
Non-event NRIa (95% CI) | 0.03 (0.01, 0.05) | − 0.13 (− 0.16, − 0.09) | 0.06 (0.02, 0.08) | 0.05 (− 0.00, 0.10) | 0.02 (− 0.03, 0.06) | 0.11 (0.09, 0.13) | − 0.09 (− 0.13, − 0.07) | 0.08 (0.05, 0.11) | 0.10 (0.05, 0.15) | 0.15 (0.11, 0.19) |