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Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for health states considered in the model

From: Cost-effectiveness of a national population-based screening program for type 2 diabetes: the Brazil experience

Health state Transition probability Source
Normal to microalbuminuria
 Baseline 0.033 [1]
 Hypertensive with moderate control 0.056 [48]
 Hypertensive with tight control 0.038 [48]
Microalbuminuria to nephropathy
 Baseline 0.075 [2]
 Hypertensive with moderate control 0.151 [48]
 Hypertensive with tight control 0.128 [48]
Nephropathy to end-stage renal disease
 0–11 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.004 [49, 50]
 12–19 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.039 [49, 50]
 20–94 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.074 [49, 50]
Normal to peripheral neuropathy 0.0036 [1]
Peripheral neuropathy to lower-extremity amputation
 0–7 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.028 [51]
 8–12 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.046 [51]
 13–18 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.056 [51]
 19–94 years since diabetes diagnosis 0.140 [51]
Normal to photocoagulation
 Baseline 0.011 [1]
 Hypertensive with moderate control 0.017 [2]
 Hypertensive with tight control 0.010  
Photocoagulation to blindness
 Baseline 0.107 [2]
 Hypertensive with moderate control 0.107 [2]
 Hypertensive with tight control 0.107 [2]
Normal to stroke Framingham equation  
Stroke to death
 Immediate 0.142 [52]
 1 year 0.092 [52]
Normal to CHD
CHD(t) = [F(t) − F(t − 1)]/[1 − F(t − 1)]*   [53]
  1. CHD coronary heart disease
  2. * Probability of a new case of CHD at period t given by a Weibull function