Cost-effectiveness of a national population-based screening program for type 2 diabetes: the Brazil experience

Table 1 Annual transition probabilities for health states considered in the model

Health state	Transition probability	Source
Normal to microalbuminuria
Baseline	0.033	[1]
Hypertensive with moderate control	0.056	[48]
Hypertensive with tight control	0.038	[48]
Microalbuminuria to nephropathy
Baseline	0.075	[2]
Hypertensive with moderate control	0.151	[48]
Hypertensive with tight control	0.128	[48]
Nephropathy to end-stage renal disease
0–11 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.004	[49, 50]
12–19 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.039	[49, 50]
20–94 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.074	[49, 50]
Normal to peripheral neuropathy	0.0036	[1]
Peripheral neuropathy to lower-extremity amputation
0–7 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.028	[51]
8–12 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.046	[51]
13–18 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.056	[51]
19–94 years since diabetes diagnosis	0.140	[51]
Normal to photocoagulation
Baseline	0.011	[1]
Hypertensive with moderate control	0.017	[2]
Hypertensive with tight control	0.010
Photocoagulation to blindness
Baseline	0.107	[2]
Hypertensive with moderate control	0.107	[2]
Hypertensive with tight control	0.107	[2]
Normal to stroke	Framingham equation
Stroke to death
Immediate	0.142	[52]
1 year	0.092	[52]
Normal to CHD
CHD(t) = [F(t) − F(t − 1)]/[1 − F(t − 1)]*		[53]

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