Table 1 Overview of the included prevalent diabetes risk prediction models and their performance for the original model and the intercept adjusted model
Incident diabetes risk models | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Description | Cambridge risk score | Kuwaiti risk score | Omani risk score | Rotterdam predictive model 1 | Simplified Finnish risk score | Bellville South | |||||
Authors | Griffin et al. [17] | Al Khalaf et al. [18] | Al-Lawati & Tuomilehto [19] | Baan et al. [20] | Bergmann et al. [21] | - | |||||
Year published | 2000 | 2008 | 2007 | 1999 | 2007 | - | |||||
Country | UK | Kuwaiti | Oman | Netherlands | Germany | South Africa | |||||
Validation | None | External [28] | - | ||||||||
Sample size | 1077 | 460 | 4881 | 1016 | 526 | 737 | |||||
Type of study | Cross-sectional | Cross-sectional | Cross-sectional | Cohort | Cohort | Cohort | |||||
Age range | 40 – 79 | 20 – >40 (36.2) | 20 – 80 | 55 – 75 | 41 – 79 | 15–95 | |||||
Population | Caucasian | Arab | Arab | Caucasian | Caucasian | Mixed ancestry | |||||
Diagnosis of diabetes | FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l | FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; Random glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l | FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l | FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l | FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l | FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l | |||||
Development C-statistic | 0.80 (0.68 – 0.91) | 0.82 (NS) | 0.83 (0.82 – 0.84) | 0.68 (0.64 – 0.72) | 0.75 (0.68 – 0.81) | - | |||||
Predictors | |||||||||||
Age | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Sex– | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
BMI | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Use of HTN drugs | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Family history | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | |||||
WC | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | |||||
Smoking | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | |||||
Corticosteroids | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | |||||
Systolic/diastolic | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | |||||
Performance | Original | Adjusted | Original | Adjusted | Original | Adjusted | Original | Adjusted | Original | Adjusted | |
E/O (95 % CI) | 1.81 (1.09–2.52) | 1.22 (0.61–1.83) | 0.72 (0.40–1.12) | 0.94 (0.47–1.41) | 1.28 (0.63–1.93) | 1.06 (0.47–1.66) | 0.54 (0.50–1.04) | 0.98 (0.91–1.05) | 0.26 (0.13–0.39) | 0.89 (0.51–1.26) | − |
Brier score | 0.193 | 0.160 | 0.141 | 0.143 | 0.164 | 0.157 | 0.147 | 0.140 | 0.157 | 0.143 | − |
Yates slope | 0.379 | 0.379 | 0.496 | 0.496 | 0.392 | 0.392 | 0.971 | 0.971 | 0.491 | 0.491 | − |
C-statistic (95 % CI) | 0.67 (0.62–0.72) | − | 0.68 (0.63–0.73) | − | 0.66 (0.61–0.70) | − | 0.64 (0.59–0.69) | − | 0.67 (0.62–0.71) | − | − |
Optimal threshold | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.02 | 0.08 | − |
Sensitivity | 65 | 65 | 61 | 61 | 85 | 85 | 57 | 57 | 75 | 75 | − |
Specificity | 61 | 61 | 63 | 63 | 42 | 42 | 65 | 65 | 48 | 48 | − |
Correctly classified | 62 | 62 | 63 | 63 | 50 | 50 | 64 | 64 | 53 | 53 | − |