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Table 1 Overview of the included prevalent diabetes risk prediction models and their performance for the original model and the intercept adjusted model

From: Independent external validation and comparison of prevalent diabetes risk prediction models in a mixed-ancestry population of South Africa

  Incident diabetes risk models
Description Cambridge risk score Kuwaiti risk score Omani risk score Rotterdam predictive model 1 Simplified Finnish risk score Bellville South
Authors Griffin et al. [17] Al Khalaf et al. [18] Al-Lawati & Tuomilehto [19] Baan et al. [20] Bergmann et al. [21] -
Year published 2000 2008 2007 1999 2007 -
Country UK Kuwaiti Oman Netherlands Germany South Africa
Validation External [23-28, 35] None External [28] External [23, 27, 29] External [23, 27, 28] -
Sample size 1077 460 4881 1016 526 737
Type of study Cross-sectional Cross-sectional Cross-sectional Cohort Cohort Cohort
Age range 40 – 79 20 – >40 (36.2) 20 – 80 55 – 75 41 – 79 15–95
Population Caucasian Arab Arab Caucasian Caucasian Mixed ancestry
Diagnosis of diabetes FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; Random glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l FBG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l; 2 h glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l
Development C-statistic 0.80 (0.68 – 0.91) 0.82 (NS) 0.83 (0.82 – 0.84) 0.68 (0.64 – 0.72) 0.75 (0.68 – 0.81) -
Predictors       
Age Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Sex– Yes No No Yes Yes Yes
BMI Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes
Use of HTN drugs Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Family history Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
WC No Yes Yes No No Yes
Smoking Yes No No No Yes Yes
Corticosteroids Yes No No No Yes Yes
Systolic/diastolic No No Yes No No Yes
Performance Original Adjusted Original Adjusted Original Adjusted Original Adjusted Original Adjusted  
E/O (95 % CI) 1.81 (1.09–2.52) 1.22 (0.61–1.83) 0.72 (0.40–1.12) 0.94 (0.47–1.41) 1.28 (0.63–1.93) 1.06 (0.47–1.66) 0.54 (0.50–1.04) 0.98 (0.91–1.05) 0.26 (0.13–0.39) 0.89 (0.51–1.26)
Brier score 0.193 0.160 0.141 0.143 0.164 0.157 0.147 0.140 0.157 0.143
Yates slope 0.379 0.379 0.496 0.496 0.392 0.392 0.971 0.971 0.491 0.491
C-statistic (95 % CI) 0.67 (0.62–0.72) 0.68 (0.63–0.73) 0.66 (0.61–0.70) 0.64 (0.59–0.69) 0.67 (0.62–0.71)
Optimal threshold 0.29 0.16 0.13 0.18 0.12 0.09 0.20 0.18 0.02 0.08
Sensitivity 65 65 61 61 85 85 57 57 75 75
Specificity 61 61 63 63 42 42 65 65 48 48
Correctly classified 62 62 63 63 50 50 64 64 53 53
  1. *95 % CI 95 % confidence interval, BMI body mass index, DM diabetes mellitus, E/O ratio expected/observed event rate, FBG fasting blood glucose, HTN hypertension, OGTT 2 h post load oral glucose tolerance test, UK United Kingdom, WC waist circumference